“I certainly wouldn’t call this a recovery,” said Doug Shapiro, the research center’s executive director. “We’re seeing smaller declines, but when you’re in a deep hole, the fact that you’re only digging a tiny bit further is not really good news.”
The enrollment trends for this fall are estimates based on partial and preliminary data from colleges and universities. There are no precise figures available yet for total head counts.
Shapiro said the initial data suggest that steep drops after the pandemic disrupted colleges globally in early 2020 have not been reversed. Many high school graduates in 2020 and 2021 who ordinarily would have gone to college did not. And they might never do so.
Colleges scramble to recruit students as nationwide enrollment plunges
Freshmen enrollment is down this fall about 1.5 percent.
“We don’t see a huge upsurge of first-year students, of freshmen, especially at the four-year institutions,” Shapiro said. Noting the “lost classes” of high school graduates who fell off the college track, Shapiro said: “There’s not a lot of evidence in these numbers that they’re coming back now.”
The sharpest undergraduate declines this fall, compared to a year ago, were at for-profit schools. The research center found those numbers down 2.5 percent. Undergraduate enrollment was down 1.6 percent at public four-year schools and 0.9 percent at private nonprofit colleges and universities.
At community colleges, enrollment was down 0.4 percent. That marked a slowdown in what had been precipitous declines for the public two-year schools. But they are still far from recovery to pre-pandemic operations.
Graduate enrollment, the report found, was down 1 percent compared to the previous fall.
Enrollment is sensitive to birthrates as well as migration patterns and economic factors. When the economy booms and jobs are plentiful, many young people will delay going to college. Several states in the Midwest and mid-Atlantic regions have had sharper enrollment declines than the national average. Across the country, most colleges and universities are worried that such declines will reduce revenue they need to keep pace with higher costs as inflation raises the price of goods and services.
The next inflation-driven worry: Rising college tuition
One potential positive sign for next year’s enrollment is emerging in the number of high school seniors who complete the federal financial aid application known as FAFSA. Data from the National College Attainment Network show that 4.3 percent of students in the high school class of 2023 had completed the FAFSA through Oct. 7. That was up 25 percent compared with the previous academic year.