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Winter’s just around the corner, and if anything is certain about a Nebraska winter, it’s that nothing is certain.
The upcoming winter will be no different, forecasters say.
The national Climate Prediction Center on Thursday issued its official winter outlook. It said just about anything is possible this winter across large parts of the country, including the central United States.
“We expect high variability this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at the Climate Prediction Center. The center is a division of the National Weather Service.
For the third winter in a row, a La Niña weather pattern is expected to dominate climatic conditions in much of North America.
And while that brings some certainty to some parts of the U.S., it doesn’t for this part of the country, said Van DeWald, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Valley.
The last two La Niña winters are evidence of that, he said.
Two winters ago, DeWald said, Omaha saw its 14th-snowiest winter on record and received 20.9 inches more snow than average.
This past winter, he said, Omaha experienced its third-least-snowy winter, with snowfall falling 16.3 inches below average.
Based on historical trends, La Niña can bring a harsh end to winter in this part of the country, he said. But even that’s not certain.
The crippling polar vortex that sent energy bills skyrocketing during February 2021 and contributed to rolling blackouts occurred in the context of a La Niña winter. That was Nebraska’s fourth-coldest winter on record. But a year later, a second La Niña February brought near-normal temperatures to the state.
“La Niña is unpredictable for us,” DeWald said. That’s because this part of the country is vulnerable to potent climatic patterns that can overwhelm the influence of La Niña.
Other parts of the country have more predictable La Niña winters. Some places in the northern U.S. are forecast to see a colder and wetter-than-normal winter, according to the Climate Prediction Center, while parts of the southern U.S. are likely to see warmer and drier-than-normal weather.
A bit of a roller-coaster is possible in this area as those two divergent weather patterns jostle for dominance.
Mike Moritz, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Hastings, said trends suggest wide swings in temperature, including more frequent brief cold spells followed by warmer-than-normal conditions.
The winter outlook offers little good news in terms of drought and fire risks.
The climate center expects drought to persist across Nebraska and take hold in the sliver of south-central Nebraska that isn’t classified as in drought. Nebraska and large swaths of the country remain at risk of wildfires until snow arrives and provides a protective blanket.

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Our best Omaha staff photos & videos of October 2022

Marian’s Maddia Groff (3) celebrates scoring the winning run during the Class A State Softball Championship game against Gretna on Friday.

A sculpture and amphitheater of the newly renovated Gene Leahy Mall is visible through the partially demolished W. Dale Clark Library, located, 215 S 15th St, on Thursday.

Kearney’s Asher Saulsbury reacts after conceding a point during his championship match against Lincoln East’s Hunter Nelson at Koch Tennis Center in Omaha on Friday.

Lincoln East’s Hunter Nelson returns the ball during his championship match against Kearney Asher Saulsbury at Koch Tennis Center in Omaha on Friday.

Millard South’s Grant Renken (left) tries to catch a pass while pressured by Omaha Westside’s Nick Anglim (center) and Teddy Rezac during overtime in their game at Westside High School in Omaha on Thursday.

Breyan Lovejoy (left) and Kaleb Sheridan sing and drum with other members of the White Eagle Club during the Indigenous Peoples’ Day Celebration at Josyln Castle & Gardens in Omaha on Monday.

Kane Sheridan, of the White Eagle Club Dancers, dances during the Indigenous Peoples’ Day Celebration at Josyln Castle & Gardens in Omaha on Monday.

Members of the White Eagle Club Dancers perform during the Indigenous Peoples’ Day Celebration at Josyln Castle & Gardens in Omaha on Monday.

Nebraska’s Trey Palmer (3) celebrates with teammates after his touchdown during their game on Friday in Piscataway.

Nebraska’s Casey Thompson (11) warms up ahead of the Nebraska vs. Rutgers football game in Piscataway on Friday.

Papio South’s Kenzie Dyrstad dives for the ball during their match against Skyview Idaho during the Girls Volleyball Invitational at Papillion-La Vista South High School on Friday.

Marion Burse sings along to “Lift Every Voice and Sing” at the ceremony.

Sarah Walker, Creighton University Vice President for Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion, speaks during Friday’s ceremony.

Owner Angie Norman in the garden at Dahlia House, her Airbnb in Benson. “It’s like you are watching a show,” Norman said. “It’s just full of life.”

Creighton Head Coach Jim Flanery watches his team practice at Sokol Arena on Tuesday.

Creighton’s Kennedy Townsend poses for a portrait at Creighton’s Championship Center on Tuesday.

Creighton’s Arthur Kaluma poses for a portrait at Creighton’s Championship Center on Tuesday.

Nebraska’s Ty Robinson (99) celebrates a sack of Indiana’s Connor Bazelak (9) in the Indiana vs. Nebraska football game in Lincoln on Saturday. Nebraska won the game 35-21.

Nebraska’s Nick Henrich tackles Indiana’s Javon Swinton during their game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday.

Nebraska’s Anthony Grant fumbles the ball which was recovered by Nebraska’s Brody Belt during the second half of their game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday.

Nebraska’s Luke Reimer intercepts the ball after tackling Indiana’s Javon Swinton during the second half of their game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday.

Nebraska’s Nick Henrich tackles Indiana’s Donaven McCulley during the second half of their game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday.

Nebraska’s Luke Reimer and Grant Tagge celebrate after Reimer broke up a pass to get a stop during the second half of their game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday.

Nebraska’s Nick Henrich celebrates after tackling Indiana’s Donaven McCulley during the second half of their game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday.

Ice coats blades of grass at Memorial Park early Tuesday morning as Omaha set a new record low of 19 degrees according to the National Weather Service.

Nebraska’s Chubba Purdy (6) is brought down by Indiana’s Louis Moore (20) and Cam Jones (4) in the Indiana vs. Nebraska football game in Lincoln on Saturday. Purdy fumbled the ball, and it was recovered for a touchdown by Indiana.

Nebraska’s Marques Buford Jr., left, tackles Indiana’s Andison Coby after he had a four-yard reception in the second quarter on Saturday.

Mila Friedman, 4, is tossed in the air and caught by her dad, Sebastian Friedman, of Lincoln, while tailgating ahead of the Indiana vs. Nebraska football game in Lincoln on Saturday.

Gretna’s Cameron Bothwell (99) smiles with teammates after his game-winning field goal in the Bellevue West vs. Gretna football game at Gretna High School on Friday. Gretna won the game 40-37.

From left, triplets Morgan, Maddie and Megan Moore wait for customers at Corn Crib Coffee. The coffee shop in a former corn crib is getting a lot of traction on social media.

People hold their phones to get photos of the first plane to land at Offutt Air Force Base, a TC-135 following an 18-month runway reconstruction that cost more than $200 million on Friday, September 30, 2022.

Lt. Col. Ryan Davis brings his new son, Beckett, to see the new runway at Offutt Air Force Base on Friday.

Work continues on Heartland of America Park and Lewis & Clark Landing, with the skate ribbon visible on the bottom right, on Thursday.
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